President Trump, State Sen. Brent Taylor and State Rep. John Gillespie fight fake crime statistics in DC and Memphis
By: The Shelby County Observer Investigative Team on August 27, 2025
MEMPHIS, TN – In the nation’s capital, the Justice Department’s recent investigation into the D.C. police department’s alleged manipulation of crime data underscores an unsettling reality: statistics designed to reassure the public can be weaponized to create illusions. President Trump’s epic blunt declaration — “D.C. gave fake crime numbers in order to create a false illusion of safety” — is not merely political rhetoric; it is a reflection of a broader national concern that has found a parallel in Memphis.
Months before Washington became the epicenter of a federal inquiry, two Tennessee lawmakers — State Sen. Brent Taylor and State Rep. John Gillespie — had already raised alarms. Their letter to the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation questioned the accuracy of Memphis’s crime reporting, warning that manipulated numbers could obscure the city’s true public safety crisis. In doing so, they anticipated a revelation that Shelby County’s own watchdog press — the Shelby County Observer — was uniquely positioned to expose.
Amongst Memphis news media, on May 7, 2025, the Shelby County Observer published what remains the only detailed account of Memphis’s hidden crime crisis under the headline: “MEMPHIS MAYOR PAUL YOUNG’S CRIME CRISIS: IN MEMPHIS, 56% OF ARRESTS ARE DISMISSED — AS MILLIONS IN CRIME PREVENTION GRANTS GO TO INSIDERS WITHOUT COMPETITION.” The report cut through the fog of official optimism. If more than half of arrests are quietly dismissed, the official crime numbers presented to the public — neat graphs of declining rates — cannot be trusted. Dismissed cases are not statistical noise; they are part of a systemic pattern that inflates law enforcement’s apparent success while masking deep dysfunction in prosecution, policing, and city governance.
The Illusion of Progress
Crime numbers have always been vulnerable to political interpretation. Mayors cite reductions in violent crime as evidence of good governance; police chiefs present falling arrest rates as proof of community policing. Yet, as the D.C. probe and the Memphis revelations show, numbers can be sculpted as carefully as any campaign ad.
Dismissed arrests play a crucial role in this illusion. If thousands of charges vanish before reaching trial, the city can trumpet “resolved” cases or lower conviction totals while the public remains unaware that the supposed arrests never led to meaningful accountability. In Memphis, these dismissals dovetail with a troubling allocation of resources: millions in taxpayer-funded crime-prevention grants have flowed to politically connected insiders without meaningful competition. The effect is a hollow victory—public money spent, public trust eroded.
Dismissed Cases: The Silent Manipulation of Crime Data
In May, the Observer’s reporting revealed a paradox at the heart of Memphis’s “crime crisis.” If more than half of arrests never withstand judicial scrutiny, how can the city credibly present its crime statistics to the public? For example, if Memphis Police arrest 1,000 individuals on charges of aggravated assault, but 560 of those cases are later dismissed for procedural errors, the official narrative still allows city leaders to claim that “crime is down” because those dismissed cases never appear in conviction data. The statistical ledger now shows fewer violent crimes reaching judgment, creating the illusion of progress. Yet in reality, the community has not become safer; it has merely been told a story in which dangerous incidents vanish from the books.
This practice does more than distort the data — it undermines public trust. It rewards police for making arrests that cannot hold up in court, while punishing neither the systemic failures that caused the dismissals nor the violence that residents still endure. It also diverts millions in crime-prevention funds to politically connected insiders on the strength of “improving” statistics that are little more than discarded cases hidden from view.
Ethically, it is indefensible: a dismissed case should signal institutional weakness, not be spun into proof of strength. What looks like progress on paper may, in fact, be the statistical shadow of systemic failure — failure that falls hardest on the very citizens government is sworn to protect.
Why the TBI Should Connect Case Dismissals to Fake Crime Reporting- Raw Material for a Misleading Public Narrative
The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation should pursue not only the statistical irregularities themselves but also the link between intentional mass dismissals of cases in Memphis and the production of fake crime news reporting. If thousands of charges are quietly discarded, yet officials continue to tout declining crime rates, then the dismissals are not just administrative outcomes — they are the raw material for a misleading public narrative. By investigating whether Memphis leaders knowingly relied on inflated dismissal rates to present a rosier picture of public safety, the TBI would be examining more than data manipulation; it would be probing a coordinated effort to deceive the public, secure federal funds under false pretenses, and shape media coverage around a fiction of progress. Such an inquiry is essential, not only to restore trust in the accuracy of crime statistics, but also to reaffirm that citizens deserve transparency rather than propaganda masquerading as safety.
The Local Watchdogs
What makes Memphis unusual is not the manipulation itself but the exposure. The Shelby County Observer—with limited staff and reach compared to the city’s major outlets—was the only newsroom to publish the explosive dismissal figures and connect them to the city’s grantmaking practices. In doing so, it predated the very federal concerns now animating the Justice Department’s inquiry into D.C.
Taylor and Gillespie’s letter to the TBI further bolstered the Observer’s findings. In plain language, they asked whether Memphis was hiding behind selective data reporting to downplay crime. That letter now looks prophetic. Long before the president’s blunt accusation against Washington, these lawmakers demanded that Tennessee’s own watchdog agency verify whether the numbers told the truth.
The Legal Perils of Manipulating Crime Statistics
If the TBI concludes that crime data in Memphis has been deliberately manipulated, the legal consequences could be far-reaching. Under Tennessee law, the falsification or destruction of government records constitutes a criminal offense, exposing officials to charges that carry both fines and potential imprisonment. On the federal level, if inaccurate statistics were used to justify or retain millions of dollars in public safety grants, the conduct could implicate the False Claims Act (31 U.S.C. §§ 3729–3733), which punishes fraudulent use of federal funds with treble damages and civil penalties. Even more serious, 18 U.S.C. § 1001 prohibits knowingly making false statements in matters within federal jurisdiction, and 18 U.S.C. § 287 addresses false claims for federal money. Together, these provisions mean that city leaders who knowingly leveraged inflated dismissal rates to paint a false picture of public safety could face not only political scandal but also criminal liability, loss of office, and federal prosecution.
Political Consequences
For Mayor Paul Young and Police Chief C.J. Davis, the stakes could be profound. If the TBI confirms deliberate manipulation of crime data, the legal consequences may extend beyond political embarrassment. Tennessee law provides for criminal liability when public officials knowingly falsify records. Civil suits could also follow, especially if manipulated statistics were used to secure or justify federal grants. The Department of Justice, already engaged in Washington, could plausibly extend its reach to Memphis, examining whether federal crime-prevention dollars were disbursed under false pretenses.
In that scenario, the city’s carefully constructed narrative of improvement would collapse into litigation and scandal. For Young, whose PR campaign has styled him as a reformist mayor, the fallout could jeopardize his political career. For Chief Davis, it could mean professional censure or removal. And for Memphis residents, it would confirm a suspicion long whispered on C-Suites, street corners, and church pews: that the numbers never matched their lived reality.
A Broader Reckoning
The resonance between Washington and Memphis points to a national crisis of confidence. Data, once the hard currency of governance, has become another terrain for political manipulation. If crime statistics—the very numbers used to allocate billions in federal grants, deploy police resources, and shape public perception—cannot be trusted, then democracy’s informational foundation is dangerously eroded.
And yet, accountability still stirs in unexpected places. A president’s blunt pronouncement. Two state lawmakers’ letter. A local paper’s lonely exposé. Together they form an unlikely coalition against the illusion of safety. Their work suggests that while the numbers may lie, the pursuit of truth persists.
In Memphis and in Washington, the reckoning has only begun.
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