March Madness 2025 national title odds: Duke enters Final Four as betting favorite
By: Scott Phillips
The 2025 Final Four is set after all four No. 1 seeds advanced to college basketball’s final weekend for the first time since 2008 and only the second time since the tournament expanded in 1985. With chalk being the theme of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, odds for the national championship remained mostly unchanged.
Top seeds Duke, Florida, Houston and Auburn saw minimal movement atop the title odds during dominant postseason runs. Despite this year’s Elite Eight teams tying with the 2007 tourney for the lowest combined seed total (13) in tournament history, the four No. 1 seeds demolished four quality opponents by an average of 12.5 points.
That sort of total dominance over top competition sets the stage for two highly anticipated matchups between juggernauts in San Antonio.
Once it became clear that freshman sensation Cooper Flagg was healthy, Duke has been the clear favorite to cut down the nets. But one of the most loaded Final Fours in tournament history offers plenty of competition for the Blue Devils.
Let’s dive into the opening Final Four odds and the title contenders.
After an impressive showing during the East Regional, Duke’s national championship odds are now even stronger heading into the Final Four. The Blue Devils (-110) went from +180 after the Sweet 16 win over Arizona to +100 after their impressive 20-point win over No. 2 Alabama. Duke’s dismantling of the Crimson Tide puts the program back into the Final Four for the first time since Mike Krzyzewski’s final season in 2022.
Duke is stellar on both ends of the floor with a top-five offense (No. 1) and defense (No. 4), according to KenPom. Led by Flagg and up to six future NBA players, the Blue Devils are the deepest, most versatile and most talented team left in the field.
While opening as a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM against Houston in the national semifinals, the Blue Devils do face a potential road atmosphere since the Final Four is in Texas.
That said, in winning their four 2025 NCAA Tournament games by an average of 23.5 points per game, the Blue Devils look the part of the favorite so far this March.
Florida stays behind Duke in the odds
Keeping pace with Duke in the No. 2 spot on the odds board is Florida. Although the Gators entered the 2025 NCAA Tournament slightly ahead of the Blue Devils atop the odds, Florida (+300) has trailed Duke since Flagg’s healthy return.
The Gators were at +300 after their Sweet 16 win over Maryland and elevated to +250 after the Elite Eight win over Texas Tech before settling at their current number.
Riding a 10-game winning streak (with six of those wins coming over teams who made the Sweet 16), the Gators continue to defeat quality competition during a memorable March. The team has been led by Walter Clayton Jr., whom many are calling a Steph Curry-lite after the Florida guard’s heroics in the Elite Eight.
Florida gets another matchup against top seed Auburn in the national semifinals. The Gators won on the road at Auburn, 90-81, in early February during SEC conference play. Entering the game as nearly double-digit underdogs, Florida knocked down 13 3-pointers to earn its signature victory of the regular season.
Can Houston break through?
Following early exits as a top seed in the Sweet 16 the last two years, Houston finally made good on its No. 1 seed by winning the Midwest Region.
Thoroughly tested during the tournament, Houston outlasted tough No. 8 seed Gonzaga, won a virtual road game against No. 4 Purdue in Indianapolis and ran past No. 2 Tennessee in the Elite Eight. The Cougars (+400) sat at +550 after the Sweet 16. When Duke cemented its spot as Houston’s future Final Four opponent, the Cougars dropped to +750. Odds then rose for Houston after the impressive blowout win over the Volunteers.
Led by the nation’s No. 1 defense (per KenPom), Houston’s offense also packs a solid punch as the best 3-point shooting team left in the field (39.7 percent, third nationally).
Although the Cougars own the nation’s longest winning streak (17), they’re an underdog against Duke in the national semifinals.
Previous favorite Auburn still a credible threat
Previously the national title favorite after winning the outright SEC conference title, Auburn checks in at fourth in the odds entering the Final Four.
At the start of March, Auburn (+500) hovered at +325 before a loss to Tennessee in the SEC conference tournament dropped the Tigers to +400 and propelled Duke and Florida past them. Auburn was +550 after the Sweet 16 and dipped again to +700 entering the Elite Eight matchup with Michigan State.
It’s worth noting that the Tigers played each of the other national semifinalists during the regular season. Auburn beat Houston while losing to Duke and Florida. So any hypothetical title game opponent should be familiar to the Tigers if they can get there.
Auburn has opened as a 2.5-point underdog against Florida at BetMGM, but the health of Auburn star forward Johni Broome will be the big storyline to follow during the week. The Player of the Year candidate exited Auburn’s Elite Eight win briefly after injuring his elbow — only to return later in the game. If word gets out that Broome isn’t fully healthy, look for an immediate impact on Auburn’s title odds.
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